Disclaimer: I'm not doomsaying here by any means. Just opening a channel for discussion based upon some observations of mine about the current state of Linux in general. So please don't panic while reading this. I want to try and inform through this article in hopes of generating discussion rather than causing a panic. So please be aware of that.

Now, down to the subject at hand. In the process of working with my Linux wiki of late, some interesting things have come to my attention that I think should be looked at. One of those is the seemingly fragile state of a large number of distributions out there. Out of the 500+ different Linux distributions currently available, approximately 350 are listed as active, half to two thirds of which appear to be on shaky ground.

Now this is simply my observation, taken from several things I've made note of.   The first of these is release schedules. Typically, healthy distributions release a new version of their software at least ever 9 months to 2 years. Semi-active distributions tend to release a new version ever 2-3 years. Any distribution that has not released a new version within 4 years is and should be considered dead. In some cases I'd begin to wonder if a distribution wasn't already dead or on the verge of dying if it hasn't released a new version by the end of two years.

Another indicator of life within a distribution is the amount of current development being undertaken. In most cases, this can be tracked through some form of CVS or SVN version tracking or snapshot system. Most healthy distributions have daily or weekly snapshots of their code. Semi-active distributions have snapshots every month to six months. If a distribution hasn't had any development snapshots submitted within 6 months, it's considered dead, or at least should be. Would you believe that just over two thirds of all distributions I researched have not had a recent development snapshot posted in the last month? A large percentage of those haven't seen anything posted in the last 3-6 months!  I don't have an exact figure for those, but I'd say it's close to 45% or so.

Another indication, although not necessarily a good one, is the frequency of patches submitted for core system files or updates for installed software packages. Approximately 35% haven't posted a single patch in the past 6 months for anything. Not even critical updates. But as I said before, this isn't always a good indicator, because not everyone runs their own package database, and a large portion piggyback off the databases used by larger distributions, this is in no way a good indicator. So I thought to mention that, just in case someone wanted to point out the same thing.  I only include it for completeness. ;)

With those thoughts in mind, how long will it be before there's a major readjustment in the list of active distributions?  Now in reality there is not going to be a sudden distro implosion and nor was that ever a possibility.  But what the general public perceives and what is reality varies.  This is because the general public looks at the current list of distributions as their guide to the health of Linux.  The problem is, a lot of those lists include a lot of distributions that are actually dead. One of those is Distrowatch. Now I can't fault Ladislav Bodnar, creator and maintainer of Distrowatch, for this. He's just one man trying to keep track of a lot of information and he does a great job with the little time each day he has, and I know I greatly appreciate his work.  However, in looking through his site, he's got a lot of distributions on his list that are technically dead. (if you guys were to help him out by finding those distributions and suggesting them for removal, it'd help him out a lot and I know he'd appreciate it)

If he were to suddenly clean up his list, I can almost guarantee that over 150 different distributions listed on there would vanish overnight.  And when he did, others would soon follow his example, I'm sure. Especially if news of such a purge got others to re-evaluate their lists and update them. To those of us who have been around in the Linux world for a while, a lot of the distributions that would vanish would be of no surprise. Thus to us, the only "implosion" we would see, would be the size of the list of active distributions. But to the world out there, it would seem like a true implosion.

However, this would also have a second, unintended effect I believe. With the sudden apparent disappearance of so many distributions overnight, those that were on shaky ground and nearly ready to close up shop themselves would likely do so. End result? About 150 active distributions would be left on the list at Distrowatch and in the real world, not counting projects that are new and trying to get their feet under them.

So in a way, such a readjustment would actually cause an implosion of sorts, albeit small. But what'd come out of this "thinning of the herd", so to speak, would be the cream of the crop. A group of distributions that would not only be stronger, but would have access to a much larger available developer base, which can only mean good for everyone.

So what do you think about all this? Is there an impending implosion coming? Or is this just a massive readjustment that's been a long time in coming? Share your thoughts with us and with others. I'd love to hear your feedback on this. Also, my information is an educated guess based on my own research. You're welcome to do your own and dispute my findings if you'd like. But I think you'll find that I'm pretty accurate in my assessment.

EDIT (11/25/2007): Cleaned up some grammar and spelling mistakes that were pointed out to me and clarified a few of my earlier statements to make them easier to understand.  Sorry if I confused anyone while reading this.  ^_^;;

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