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How will Linux win the OS wars? From the bottom up! (Page 1 of 1)

Written by Steve Lake
Posted on: Dec 14, 2007 at 02:45pm
Section: Editorials
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For years people have been wondering how exactly will Linux become the number one operating system in the world.  Some said it would start in the server world, and in many ways it has.  But even having a majority market share in the server room doesn't translate to market dominance.  So what about the classroom?  Apple tried that years ago and we can see how well that went.  IBM tried for the business market and had about as much luck.  But Microsoft went after the home market.  Capture the hearts and minds of the workers at home and you can sway even the most stubborn of companies to buy your product.  With that thought, and the help of the hardware OEM's, Microsoft essentially took over the world.

So with that in mind, what's the key to Linux winning the OS wars?  Some would say that you need to go the same route as Microsoft did and go after the home user.  But that means you'd have to force your way into a powerful PC industry who is madly drunk on the profits Microsoft has brought them through the sale of Windows.  They don't want to switch to something new unless they know it will make them money.  Thus, for now, Microsoft is entrenched in the high end PC market.  Especially since so many gamers depend on it for their games and so few proper emulation tools exist to allow them to migrate their games to Linux.

So therefore, for the time being, the best way to win the war of the operating systems is not to go after the high end market. So if that's not it, what is?  The answer is actually quite simple.  But first you have to look at where we've come from to understand where Linux needs to go.  In the early to mid 80's, the computer era was just beginning.  Snagging early PC OEM's was easy as the choices were wide and varied and few people were indoctrinated or economically locked into using just one operating system.  Change is difficult for people.  If they don't need to change, they won't.  Since there were so many choices, it was much easier to get your operating system in the door and onto people's computers.  Today that's a lot different, so the approaches to capturing the market need to be different than they were 25 years ago.

In today's world, Microsoft is the king of tech companies and Windows is the king of operating systems.  But as with any despotic ruler, over time he goes from strong, quick and nimble to bloated, fat and slow.  And that's exactly what you have today.  Take Vista for example.  It's system requirements demand that in order to experience the full list of features available, you need to have a fairly powerful machine.  Yet time and again, Linux has demonstrated that it can produce exactly the same effects and features as Vista, and do it on half to a third of the hardware needed for Vista.  So back to our original question, the way Linux will win the OS wars is to start from the bottom and work its way up. That's how a lot of modern giants have reached the top.

And that mentality is already proving true. Look at all the places where Linux has hit it big. Low end PC's, sub-compact hardware, PDA's, phones, etc. Linux has the ability to fill a need in these markets that Microsoft and its Windows Operating System can't.  And once that market is secured, winning the rest of the war will become a lot easier. It certainly won't be a cake walk, but it also won't be like climbing Mt. Everest either like it is now.

And Microsoft has finally seen, and now fears that fact. They are so big they have no real way to compete in the lower markets they'd otherwise shun.  Even after Linux took off by leaps and bounds in the low end market, Microsoft only made half hearted efforts to compete in this market, instead using their big corporate muscle to force OEM's to ignore Linux and do business with them exclusively. But even those strong arm tactics have their downside.  Tactics such as that may have worked years earlier, but as Linux continues to prove itself more reliable and flexible than Microsoft, the effectiveness of those tactics quickly grow thin and the heroic giant soon becomes the beast to be slain. And believe me, there's no shortage heroes standing by ready to drive the fateful blow.
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