One of the things I've gotten a huge chuckle out of lately is all the pundits who have been screaming about how Microsoft has won the battle for the netbook market and kicked Linux to the curb with a "reported" 80% market share in the netbook market, a "reported" 90% market share in the desktop market, and Windows 7 on the horizon.What these pundits fail to realize is that, while it does look like Microsoft is winning "on paper", they're actually only winning in a very narrow set of markets. They're also quickly learning, painfully I might add, that "[market] share doesn't always pay the bills", as one famous auto exec once said.It's like what's been said before. You can't beat free, as Robin Harris pointed out in his article. And he's right. At the end of the day, no matter how much market share Microsoft may take from everyone else, they still lose, and Freedom still wins. In time, people will learn that free (as in both price and freedom) is better than any of the closed source, restricted, costly solutions offered by the proprietary vendors.And that's not to say that money can't be made from Open Source software. Mindtouch software is a great example of that. They're making a killing on a great product that's Open Source, while still maintaining the freedom loved by so many in the FOSS world.So in the end, the netbook market is *NOT* a win for Microsoft. In fact, they're losing their shirts in that market, much in the same way Microsoft's gaming division is hemorrhaging money. Microsoft only makes pennies on the dollar for every copy of Windows they ship on netbooks. Yeah, they still make money, but it's not at the same highway robbery rates they charge the OEMs for copies shipped on desktop PC's. That lower cost means less profits... if any at all, for them.It's just like their Xbox and Xbox360 were for years: Windows in netbooks is a "loss leader" for Microsoft, to use a retail merchandising term. In other words, to gain (or in this case maintain what they already have elsewhere) market share, they're taking a short-term loss in hopes that it'll pay off later. However, with $200 laptops on the horizon, I think their loss leader will remain a loss leader, and never gain them the advantage they're hoping for.And given that price is the most important element of the netbook market, the moment Microsoft feels they've solidified their market share and being raising prices, their share will vaporize. Linux's existence on netbooks will continue to create a loss for them, regardless of how much "market share" they have. And the best part is, as people get used to Linux on the netbooks, they'll eventually want it on the desktop as well. And that's something that Microsoft will do anything to avoid. That's the only reason they're into the netbook market to begin with. Microsoft thinks very little of netbooks, PDA's, or anything that won't earn them insane profits. And they think less of anything that looses money for them. The only time Microsoft will concern themselves with a market like the netbooks is if it threatens another market where they are making profits. And the netbooks are most definitely a threat to their desktop market. A deadly one at that.So in the end, Let Microsoft have their market share. It does them no good. But it will do us a great service by further weakening the giant of Redmond.
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